Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1016 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale upper trough with multiple embedded perturbations will
move eastward from the western CONUS across much of the Plains
through the period. While cold mid-level temperatures will accompany
this upper trough, meager low-level moisture and cool surface
temperatures should generally limit instability and the potential
for lightning with any convective showers that can develop this
afternoon across the Great Basin/Rockies.
Low-level moisture will gradually return northward through tonight
across the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley ahead of a strong
cold front and deepening surface low over the central Plains and mid
MO Valley. Increasing warm/moist advection associated with a
low-level jet should eventually support weak MUCAPE and isolated
thunderstorm potential across parts of eastern KS into MO and
central IL late tonight/early Sunday morning. With MUCAPE forecast
to remain generally less than 750 J/kg, the potential for severe
hail with elevated convection appears low even though deep-layer
shear will be strong.
..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/27/2025
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