Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025
Valid 271300Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight across the
contiguous United States.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough over the
West. This upper feature will move east and reach the Dakotas and
central Rockies by early Sunday morning. Ahead of this trough,
upper ridging will occur over the MS/OH Valleys with a warm conveyor
focused over the lower MO Valley. Low 60s F dewpoints will stream
north out of the southern Plains and lower MS Valley toward the
lower MO/Mid MS Valley late and ahead of an approaching cold front
pushing southeast into the KS/IA vicinity.
Weak instability is forecast to gradually develop tonight over the
lower MO/mid MS Valley with an increase in showers and isolated
thunderstorms evolving primarily after midnight. Despite strong
effective shear, current thinking is storm intensity will be limited
with the elevated storm activity and hail potential will remain sub
severe.
..Smith/Weinman.. 12/27/2025
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