Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025
Valid 240100Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for severe/damaging gusts and perhaps brief
tornadoes may develop late tonight/early Wednesday morning across
parts of coastal California.
... 01Z Update ...
A strong short-wave trough/surface low continues to approach the
California/Oregon coast. Later tonight a midlevel speed max will
intensify, helping to deepen the surface low, which will drive a
cold front eastward into California during the overnight and morning
hours. Despite limited buoyancy, especially surface based,
strengthening tropospheric flow and forced convection along the cold
front may support isolated damaging wind gusts along the California
coast. Should truly surface-based buoyancy develop and the forced
convection can realize this buoyancy, forecast wind profiles along
the coast exhibit sufficient deep-layer shear and low-level
curvature to support brief tornadoes. The easternmost extent of this
threat, especially across southern California, is delineated by the
expected position of the surface-cold front at 12Z/4AM PT. The
threat will continue past 12Z/4AM PT.
..Marsh.. 12/24/2025
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