Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1119 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential will increase along the California coast late
tonight. Organized severe is not currently forecast.
...CA...
Strong short-wave trough is forecast to approach the northern CA
coast after 24/06z, then eject inland by sunrise as midlevel speed
max intensifies and translates into northern CA. Latest model
guidance suggests this feature will induce a surface low that should
deepen as it approaches the northern CA/OR coast. This evolution
will allow a notable surface front to surge inland toward the end of
the period, around 24/12z. Wind profiles are expected to increase
markedly ahead of this feature, but pre frontal buoyancy will remain
quite limited. Forecast soundings support this with roughly 100-200
J/kg MUCAPE expected just ahead of the front. Given the strength of
the wind field there is some concern that a few strong gusts could
be noted with deeper convection; however, this activity should
develop very late (after 09z), possibly becoming more problematic
during the day2 period. At this time will not introduce severe
probabilities due to the expected late-period development, but will
continue to monitor for possible upgrade.
...South TX...
Weak midlevel disturbance is lifting north into deep south TX late
this evening. Forecast soundings suggest modest SBCAPE will develop
by mid day as this feature progresses north of the international
border. Wind fields should remain weak, along with forcing, so the
risk of severe is expected to remain low this period.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 12/23/2025
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