Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 020100Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday
morning.
...01Z Update...
No changes were made to the severe-thunderstorm probabilities with
this update. The latest surface/buoy observations and mosaic radar
data indicate an increasingly defined frontal wave low centered
about 60 miles south of the LA coast. This feature will continue
evolving east-northeastward along a marine boundary that arcs
northeastward and then eastward offshore of coastal MS, AL, and the
western FL Panhandle. This boundary demarcates the northern bound of
fully modified Gulf moisture (upper 60s to lower 70s boundary-layer
dewpoints). Ahead of the frontal wave low, dewpoints are still in
the upper 50s along the aforementioned coastal areas. However, as a
southerly low-level jet continues strengthening to around 40 kt, the
marine boundary and related moisture should impinge on the immediate
coastal areas in the 08-12Z time frame.
Given the development of weak (albeit sufficient) surface-based
buoyancy amid enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
(EVX/MOB VWPs already sampling 250-350 m2/s2 0-1km SRH), the risk
for a couple organized clusters/supercells approaching coastal AL
and the FL Panhandle will increase (especially in the 06-12Z time
frame). Any stronger/organized storms will pose a risk of a couple
tornadoes/waterspouts and locally damaging gusts.
..Weinman.. 12/02/2025
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