Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CST Mon Dec 01 2025
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COASTS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across coastal portions of
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle late tonight into early Tuesday
morning.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required for
the severe-risk area. Adjustments to the thunder line were made
across east/northeast TX to account for recent convective trends
where weak elevated thunderstorms have developed ahead of a weak
mid-level wave. Isolated thunderstorms may continue across the
greater Texarkana region over the next few hours before gradually
diminishing by late afternoon. See the discussion below for
additional details.
..Moore.. 12/01/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CST Mon Dec 01 2025/
...Gulf Coast...
A large-scale upper trough oriented from the Upper Midwest to the
southern High Plains late this morning will continue eastward
through the period, becoming positioned from the Great Lakes to the
Lower MS Valley by Tuesday morning. Another weaker mid/upper
shortwave located over the northwest Gulf will lift northeast across
the central/eastern Gulf coast vicinity while merging with the
aforementioned synoptic-scale trough. As this occurs, a broad area
of stronger south/southwesterly low to midlevel flow will overspread
the Gulf coast/Southeast. This warm advection regime will allow low
to mid 60s F dewpoints to impinge on immediate coastal areas in AL
and the FL Panhandle ahead of an eastward advancing cold front late
tonight.
Within the warm frontal zone, modest surface-based instability
should develop after 06z. Forecast soundings indicate supercell wind
profiles will be present. However, poor lapse rates and SBCAPE
generally less than 750 J/kg will limit updraft intensity. Storms
moving inland from the Gulf also will have limited area before
becoming elevated to the cool side of the warm front. Nevertheless,
transient supercells could produce a tornado or two, and/or
localized strong gusts, early Tuesday morning. The risk may continue
north and east into portions of northern FL on Tuesday morning at
the beginning of the Day 2 period (see Day 2 Convective Outlook for
more details).
Additional isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible from the
TX coastal Plain into portions of the Lower MS Valley today. This
activity is occurring within persistent, broad large-scale ascent
and midlevel warm advection atop a cooler/drier boundary-layer.
Severe storms are not expected with this activity.
...Coastal Carolinas...
A prior cold frontal passage and cold air damming across the
Piedmont will generally keep 60s F dewpoints offshore through the
period. Some guidance does bring a sliver of better boundary layer
moisture along the immediate coast/Outer Banks vicinity the last
couple hours of the period. However, any appreciable instability and
stronger convection is expected to remain offshore through 12z
Tuesday.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TPZBcX
