Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1029 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025
Valid 081630Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND IN THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon
and evening across parts of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.
Localized severe storms may also develop tonight across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley.
...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level vorticity maximum over
SD this morning, and this feature will move to western OH by early
Sunday morning. A large-scale trough with an associated belt of
strong cyclonic mid-level flow will envelope the area east of the
Rockies. In the low levels, a cold front extends from the
Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the southern Appalachians and
becoming more diffuse with south extent. As a cyclone develops
eastward from MO this afternoon to the upper OH Valley late tonight,
the diffuse portion of the front will advance northward as a warm
frontal zone across the Carolinas.
...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
Previous forecast thinking of weak surface reflection appears
plausible near/immediately east of the southern Appalachians
tonight. The proximity to a moisture-rich airmass (surface
dewpoints 65-70 deg F) over southern-central GA and southern SC
lends some concern for stronger thunderstorm development late today
through this evening. Although forcing for ascent will be weak,
persistent warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary
mechanism for isolated to widely scattered storm chances. Mid-level
lapse rates will likely remain tempered and overall buoyancy being
weak, but forecast hodographs are quite favorable for storm
organization (i.e., supercell wind profile). Will maintain a
level-1 (Marginal) categorical risk for all hazards this outlook
update.
...OH Valley...
The aforementioned mid-level impulse and associated DCVA will
overspread scant low-level moisture across the OH Valley. Intense
forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will
support a linear cluster of weak, primarily elevated convection.
However, a few strong to locally severe gusts may accompany this
activity as it tracks eastward in tandem with the
eastward-developing cyclone overnight.
..Smith/Leitman.. 11/08/2025
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