Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025
Valid 011300Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally damaging
winds will be possible late this afternoon and evening across
portions of South Texas.
...South Texas...
Pronounced amplification and reinforcement of the longwave trough
east of the Rockies will occur today via a southeastward-diving
shortwave trough/jet streak over the southern High Plains and South
Texas. This will steadily drive a cold front southeastward across
Texas and toward the western Gulf by tonight, with low-level
moistening occurring ahead of it. The extent/degree of moistening
inland is a bit uncertain, but scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop and increase by late afternoon across the coastal plain
near the front. These storms will be semi-low topped, with
sufficient moisture/buoyancy for supercells in the presence of
elongated hodographs with 45+ kt effective shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates. The primary severe threat, including large hail and
locally damaging winds, will be along the immediate coast, and into
the open waters of the western Gulf tonight. A further increase in
expected storm coverage for inland areas could warrant a
hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 11/01/2025
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