Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COASTAL SOUTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe storms capable of large hail will be
possible late this afternoon/evening across portions of Coastal
South Texas.
...South Texas...
Strong upper low is currently digging south across the upper MS
Valley. Along the back side of this feature, a midlevel jet will
translate across the southern High Plains toward deep South TX where
500mb speeds will be in excess of 50kt. Surface pressures will rise
across the southern Plains which will encourage the leading edge of
this air mass to advance into central TX by late afternoon. Even so,
this front is not expected to be the primary focus for robust
convection. Latest guidance suggests a coastal boundary will
establish itself early in the period and this feature will prove
instrumental in potential strong-severe development. However, the
coastal boundary should struggle to advance inland and the more
appreciable instability will remain just offshore. Additionally,
surface dew points are not that high across the western Gulf Basin
where mid-upper 50s dew points are noted early this morning.
Forecast soundings suggest lower 60s dew points should return to
coastal South TX, and as midlevels cool by early evening, buoyancy
is expected to become more supportive of deep convection. Wind
profiles favor supercells and hail should be the primary concern.
Will maintain MRGL Risk across this region as the majority of
convection should be near the coast, or offshore.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 11/01/2025
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