Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025
Valid 091300Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not forecast.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Much of the central and eastern CONUS will remain under the
influence of expansive surface ridging centered over eastern
Ontario. This should keep the majority of the region free of deep
convection. A few exceptions exist, including south of a cold front
that currently extends across southern AL and southern GA. This cold
front, coupled with ascent from a weak shortwave trough forecast to
move into the Southeast this afternoon evening, amid a high-PW air
mass will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorms today
and this evening from southern AL/GA across the FL Panhandle.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also possible from the
Mid/Lower MO Valley into the Upper Midwest tonight. Here, seasonally
moist low-levels and moderately low/mid-level southwesterlies will
help support warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms within the
warm sector ahead of a modest cold front. Highest coverage across
this region will likely occur from northeast KS into
northwest/north-central MO and south-central IA. In both of these
areas, poor lapse rates and related weak buoyancy should temper the
overall severe potential.
Persistent southwesterly flow between the upper ridging centered
over west Texas and cyclone off the Pacific Northwest will continue
to advect seasonally high moisture content associated with Tropical
Storm Priscilla into the Southwest and Great Basin. Modest
boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lightning within deeper convective updrafts, but overall storm
severity will likely be limited by poor lapse rates.
..Mosier/Bunting.. 10/09/2025
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