Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not forecast.
...Discussion...
Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for
robust organized thunderstorms today; although, several areas of
concentrated convection are expected.
Upper ridge is forecast to continue across the southern High Plains
through the day1 period as a strong low holds off the Oregon Coast.
Modest southwesterly flow will encourage higher PW air mass across
the southwestern U.S. into the Four Corners region where modest
boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization
for lighting within deeper convective updrafts.
Scattered thunderstorms are also expected across south FL in
association with a low-latitude midlevel trough that will drift
slowly north through the period. High-PW air mass and poor lapse
rates appear supportive of potentially heavy rain, rather than
severe storms, within broader easterly low-level flow.
Isolated thunderstorms may also develop within northwesterly
high-level diffluent flow ahead of a digging trough. Weak
instability should develop ahead of a surface front, and elevated
convection appears possible during the latter half of the period
from the upper Great Lakes into eastern Kansas.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/09/2025
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