Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible from late this afternoon into tonight from parts of the
Intermountain West into the central and northern Rockies.
...Intermountain West/Central and Northern Rockies...
Mid-level southwesterly flow will be in place today across much of
the western U.S., as a trough moves into the Intermountain West. At
the surface, a low will deepen across western Utah. Surface
dewpoints in many areas to the east and north of the low will be in
the mid 30s and mid 40s F. As surface temperatures warm today,
pockets of weak instability will develop from eastern Utah and
western Colorado northward into western Wyoming and eastern Idaho.
As large-scale ascent increases due to the approaching trough,
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this
instability corridor. RAP forecast soundings near the areas of
strongest instability have substantial speed shear in the low to
mid-levels with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the low-levels.
This could be conducive for isolated severe wind gusts with
multicells that develop during the late afternoon and evening. In
addition, 500 mb temperatures are forecast to be -12C to -15C which
could support a marginal hail threat. The severe threat could
continue into the overnight period as a band of strong large-scale
ascent moves from west to east across the region.
..Broyles/Lyons.. 10/03/2025
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