Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Valid 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today across
parts of the southern/central Rockies into the High Plains.
Occasional large hail and severe wind gusts may occur.
...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
A pronounced upper trough/low over the Sierras and western Great
Basin will advance eastward towards the Rockies through the period.
An attendant 60-80 kt southwesterly mid-level jet will also shift
from the Southwest/Four Corners to the southern/central Rockies and
adjacent High Plains today. As large-scale ascent associated with
these features overspreads this region, a surface lee cyclone is
forecast to deepen over north-central/northeast CO by this evening.
Low-level moisture through the Rio Grande Valley in NM and central
High Plains is expected to remain fairly limited, with surface
dewpoints generally in the 50s. Still, daytime heating and modestly
steepened mid-level lapse rates (mainly over the central High
Plains) should support the development of weak instability this
afternoon.
Current expectations are for thunderstorms to develop over the
higher terrain of the southern/central Rockies by early afternoon as
convective temperatures are reached. This activity should move
generally northeastward across the adjacent High Plains through the
remainder of the afternoon and continuing into the evening.
Sufficient deep-layer shear will exist to support isolated
supercells with a threat for mainly large hail. Occasional severe
winds may also occur. With time this evening, these thunderstorms
will move northward and cross a front forecast to be draped across
southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Give sufficient MUCAPE forecast
north of the front, a strengthening low-level jet this evening
across the central Plains may support a continued threat for
isolated severe hail as this convection becomes elevated into parts
of eastern WY/western SD. Overall, confidence in a more concentrated
area of severe hail potential remains too low for increased
probabilities at this time.
..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/15/2025
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