Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025
Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible today across parts of the
southern/central Rockies into the High Plains this evening into the
overnight. Hail will be the primary threat, but a few marginally
severe wind gusts may also occur.
...Synopsis...
A large western CONUS trough, seen on water vapor imagery across
southern California early this morning, will shift slowly east
through the period. A mid-level jet streak on the southern periphery
of this trough will shift east across the central Rockies. This will
result in strong lee troughing across eastern Colorado this evening
and into tonight. As this lee cyclone deepens, a warm front will
sharpen across the central Plains.
...Southern/Central Rockies into the High Plains...
As the lee cyclone deepens across eastern Colorado today, low-level
flow will strengthen. As this occurs, low-level southerly flow will
result in moistening conditions across New Mexico and into Colorado,
southeast Wyoming, and the Nebraska Panhandle and southwest South
Dakota. 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is forecast across much of this
region (perhaps somewhat delayed across northern New Mexico where
morning cloudcover may be present. While instability will be mostly
weak, strong effective shear (45 to 50 knots per RAP forecast
soundings) will support storm organization (including the potential
for supercells) with any stronger updrafts which develop. Moderately
steep mid-level lapse rates and the aforementioned thermodynamic and
kinematic factors will support isolated large hail and severe wind
gusts. Forecast hodographs show modest low-level turning across
portions of northern New Mexico which may support an isolated
tornado threat.
..Bentley/Weinman.. 10/15/2025
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