Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with marginally severe wind gusts and hail are
possible across parts of the southern Rockies from late afternoon
into the evening. An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat will be
possible this morning through midday along the southern California
coast.
...Southern CA and the Southern Rockies...
Upper low continues digging south just off the CA coast, in line
with latest model guidance. As midlevel speed max rounds the base of
the trough early in the period the upper low will advance inland,
then shift into the Great Basin by 15/12z. Weak frontal convection
has developed ahead of this feature along the cold front. While most
updrafts are too shallow to generate lightning, some risk for
isolated thunderstorms is expected as the front surges inland at the
start of the period. Left-exit region of the speed max should aid
this activity, and some risk for wind damage and perhaps a brief
weak tornado can be expected with this frontal convection.
Convective threat will decrease quickly across the lower CO River
Valley.
Downstream, upper anticyclone is stubbornly holding across the
southern Plains into northeast Mexico. This feature will ensure
favorable trajectories for maintaining seasonally high PW values
across northern Mexico into the southern Rockies. While this higher
moisture content necessitates weaker lapse rates across this region,
CINH will remain low and even modest boundary-layer heating will
lead to adequate instability for robust updrafts. Forecast soundings
exhibit 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon as surface
temperatures warm through the mid 70s to near 80F. Additionally,
deep-layer shear should support the potential for organized
updrafts, and a few supercells will likely evolve. At this time will
maintain MRGL risk for hail/wind with this activity, but later
outlooks could reflect higher probabilities if confidence increases
regarding the coverage/intensity of convection.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/14/2025
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