Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 PM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Valid 140100Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL COASTAL CALIFORNIA...
...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds are possible late tonight along parts of
south-central coastal California.
...01z Update...
Strong upper low is currently located off the northern CA Coast,
just southwest of EKA. This feature is moving south as a 100+kt
500mb jet digs along the back side of this trough. Later tonight,
left exit region of the jet max will approach the southern CA Coast
and this should encourage low-topped convection along the cold
front. Forecast soundings suggest only a few hundred J/kg MUCAPE can
be expected in advance of the front as lapse rates will only be on
the order of 6 C/km. Strong 0-6km shear favors the potential for
updraft organization, thus low severe probabilities for wind, and
perhaps a brief weak tornado will continue overnight.
..Darrow.. 10/14/2025
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