Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
COASTAL CALIFORNIA...AND THE SOUTHWEST INTO FAR WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind may occur from the Four
Corners region and eastern Arizona to far west Texas this afternoon
and evening. Locally damaging winds appear possible mainly tonight
along parts of south-central coastal California.
...Coastal California...
An upper trough/low over the coastal Pacific Northwest this morning
will dig southward along the CA Coast through tonight. An attendant
strong mid-level jet will round the base of this trough and
overspread parts of coastal south-central CA this evening into early
Tuesday morning. Strong forcing for ascent with this jet should
support low-topped convection along/ahead of a surface cold front.
Even though low-level moisture and related instability are expected
to remain quite limited with poor lapse rates present, strong flow
aloft may still support gusty to locally severe/damaging winds as
convection spreads east-southeastward along parts of the CA Coast
late this evening and overnight.
...Southwest into Far West Texas...
Between the upper trough/low over the West Coast and upper ridging
centered over much of the Plains, a fetch of low/mid-level moisture
with tropical origins will persist today over parts of the
Southwest. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor, but diurnal
heating should gradually destabilize the airmass this afternoon,
with scattered to numerous convection forecast to once again
initially develop over the higher terrain of AZ into the Four
Corners region. Strong deep-layer shear may support some updraft
organization, with isolated hail and gusty winds possible with the
more robust cores. A somewhat separate corridor of strong to
isolated severe thunderstorms may develop northeastward late this
afternoon and evening off the higher terrain of north-central Mexico
into portions of far west TX.
..Gleason/Squitieri.. 10/13/2025
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