Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S....
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and wind will be possible from the
Four Corners and eastern Arizona to the Texas Trans-Pecos this
afternoon into mid-evening. Locally damaging winds are possible
later tonight along the south-central portion of coastal California.
...Southwestern U.S...
Strong upper low is currently located along the WA Coast, shifting
south in line with latest model guidance. This feature will continue
to dig south as the primary midlevel speed max has yet to round the
base of the trough. Left-exit region of the jet max will approach
the central CA Coast after 14/06z which should encourage low-topped
convection to move onshore after midnight. This activity could be
locally strong with some gust potential as scattered convection
advances inland in association with a pronounced cold front.
Forecast soundings yield little more than 500 J/kg MLCAPE so any
hail that forms with this activity should remain below severe
levels.
Downstream, deep south-southwesterly tropical feed across northwest
Mexico into the southern Rockies will continue. Considerable amount
of clouds and scattered precipitation should limit lapse rates and
instability across this region. Even so, strong 0-6km shear does
favor organized updrafts, especially during the afternoon/early
evening when air mass will be most unstable. A low risk for
hail/wind can be expected with the most robust convection, but
widespread severe is not anticipated due to aforementioned poor
lapse rates/modest buoyancy.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 10/13/2025
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