Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England this afternoon. The
primary hazards will be strong to severe gusts capable of wind
damage and a tornado or two.
...Northeast...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level shortwave
trough moving east-northeast across Lower MI and embedded within a
larger scale cyclonic flow field over eastern North America. This
mid-level disturbance will move into southeast Quebec by this
evening. A weak frontal wave is forecast to evolve near the
NY/MA/VT border by early afternoon as a cold front sharpens and
begins to push towards the coast. A relatively moist airmass is
evident in surface observations this morning with dewpoints in the
lower 70s along the southern New England coast with mid to upper 60s
farther inland.
Despite some low cloud cover, sufficient heating will promote
moderate destabilization by early afternoon. Convection will likely
focus along the wind shift/cold front with scattered to numerous
storms eventually developing by mid-late afternoon. Model guidance
shows 35-40 kt southwesterly 700-mb flow and forecast soundings show
hodographs enlarging in the vicinity of the weak low as it migrates
north-northeast across portions of southern New England into
southern ME. Several supercells are possible and have introduced
5-percent tornado probabilities this outlook to highlight where the
greatest low-level mesocyclone threat (i.e., possibility for a
tornado or two) is forecast. Otherwise, strong to severe gusts
capable of wind damage are expected from both supercells and the
more organized/intense cores and line segments. As the disturbance
becomes displaced from the region by early evening and with the loss
of heating, the severe risk will likely diminish.
...Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas/GA...
Southern extension of stronger flow will gradually taper with south
extent from the Mid-Atlantic states into the Carolinas. However,
sufficient destabilization of a seasonably moist airmass will favor
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms evolving into a few
bands of thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary risk with the
more intense thunderstorms will be strong to locally severe gusts
capable of wind damage. This activity will likely weaken by the
early evening.
..Smith/Broyles.. 09/06/2025
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