Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 06 2025
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern
Pennsylvania and New Jersey into parts of southern New England.
Isolated strong gusts are possible extending southward across the
Piedmont.
...Northeastern U.S...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave
trough over eastern IA/southern WI, ejecting east in line with
latest model guidance. This feature will deamplify as it moves
across Lower MI into southern ON by 18z and QC by 07/00z. Following
this lead system, a secondary short-wave trough will eject across
the OH Valley into western PA by early evening. Overall, modest 12hr
height falls are forecast along the international border as 500mb
flow/shear increases across most of the northern Mid Atlantic/New
England. Primary concern for thunderstorm initiation later today
will be a pronounced cold front that will surge across this region
and off the Atlantic Coast by sunrise Sunday. By 18z the wind shift
is expected to extend from upstate NY-eastern PA-western VA. Models
suggest boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in
destabilization for thunderstorm development along the cold front.
Most CAMs suggest a marked increase in thunderstorms by 18z as
convective temperatures are breached within a favored corridor of
low-level convergence. Forecast soundings exhibit more than adequate
0-6km bulk shear for organized updrafts, and gusty winds will likely
be the primary concern, though some hail could be noted, along with
perhaps a brief tornado or two across the higher latitudes. This
activity will spread toward the Atlantic Coast during the evening
where convection should gradually weaken as it encounters less
buoyancy.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 09/06/2025
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