Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Mon Sep 29 2025
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential is low today and tonight.
...Synopsis...
A sluggish upper-level pattern will be present across much of the
CONUS as strong ridging continues to build over the central and
eastern parts of the country. East of the ridge, TS Imelda is
forecast to gradually strengthen as it approaches the Southeastern
Coast. Across the West, the remnants of an upper low will transition
to a weak open trough as a second elongated upper trough leisurely
moves onshore across the Pacific Northwest.
...Northern Great Basin and Rocky Mountains...
Ahead of the weakening upper low, strong heating of a modestly moist
air mass, in combination with weak large-scale ascent should foster
scattered thunderstorms across the central and southern Rockies.
Modest buoyancy from diminished mid-level lapse rates amid weakening
upper flow suggest little storm organization and severe potential.
Farther north into NV/ID and southern MT, scattered storms are
expected along an eastward-moving cold front this afternoon and
evening. Moderately strong meridional flow should overspread the
western Great Basin ahead of the deepening western US trough. An
occasional stronger storm is possible along the front capable of
sporadic strong wind gusts this afternoon. However, with only modest
surface moisture (dewpoints in the 40s F) and thus limited
instability (MLCAPE ~500 J/kg), widespread severe storms are not
anticipated.
...Eastern FL Peninsula to Coastal GA and SC...
Outer rainbands associated with Tropical Storm Imelda (centered near
25.0N 77.1W) will approach the eastern FL Peninsula and southeast
Atlantic Coast late in the period. While some stronger convection
may approach the coast late tonight, current forecast trajectories
suggest that more substantial buoyancy/shear profiles within these
bands should remain well offshore. As such, no severe probabilities
have been introduced this outlook. See nhc.noaa.gov for the latest
track information.
..Lyons/Moore.. 09/29/2025
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