Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable this afternoon into the
evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas.
The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a few
tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being
strong. Scattered damaging wind gusts will be possible as well.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was an expansion of the Enhanced
Risk in east-central OK and west-central AR -- driven by 30-percent
wind probabilities. Along/south of the convectively reinforced
baroclinic zone draped across northeast OK into northwest AR,
temperatures have warmed into the lower 90s amid middle 70s
dewpoints. The resultant strong surface-based buoyancy will favor
scattered damaging wind gusts (possibly up to 75 mph on an isolated
basis) with a mix of semi-discrete supercells and upscale-growing
clusters through the afternoon. For details on the near-term severe
risk here, reference MCD #2123.
Elsewhere, the Marginal Risk was expanded slightly northward into
southern IL ahead of a band of approaching convection. Diurnal
heating of a moist air mass beneath high-level clouds has
contributed to weak surface-based buoyancy, which combined with
strengthening deep-layer shear, will support a couple loosely
organized storms capable of locally damaging winds.
..Weinman.. 09/23/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025/
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South...
Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level
trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of
particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving
east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of
slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late
this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark
Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary.
This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east
from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River.
Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to
become better defined over north-central OK and this low will
develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early
evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very
moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK
with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s
deg F, respectively.
Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western
and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest
model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This
environmental setup will support robust supercell development,
especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes,
one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the
mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be
possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage
may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms
will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for
severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs
with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK
into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south
of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely
scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores
given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS,
scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon
within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk
of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/TNFnMg
