Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Valid 231630Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are probable later this afternoon
into the evening over portions of eastern Oklahoma into western
Arkansas. The primary severe-weather risk will be the threat for a
few tornadoes, with one or two of these tornadoes potentially being
strong.
...Southern Plains into the Ozarks and Mid-South...
Water-vapor imagery shows an elongated, positively tilted mid-level
trough centered over the eastern Great Basin/central Rockies. Of
particular note, a mid-level vorticity maximum is indicated moving
east from the OK-TX Panhandle region and embedded within a belt of
slightly stronger 30-45 kt westerly flow. Radar/lightning data late
this morning shows a few thunderstorm clusters over the Ozark
Plateau along and north of a psuedo warm front/outflow boundary.
This boundary has become quasi-stationary and is draped west to east
from northeast OK across far northern AR east to the MS River.
Surface streamline analysis indicates a 1007 mb low has begun to
become better defined over north-central OK and this low will
develop east along the boundary towards northwest AR by early
evening. South of the composite outflow/warm front, a very
moisture-rich airmass continues to heat/destabilize in eastern OK
with surface temperatures and dewpoints in the mid 80s and mid 70s
deg F, respectively.
Model forecast soundings shows 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE over western
and northern TX to upwards of 3000 J/kg over eastern OK. The latest
model guidance shows sufficiently enlarged hodographs (150-250 m2/s2
effective SRH) near the west-east oriented boundary. This
environmental setup will support robust supercell development,
especially in the Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) area. A few tornadoes,
one or two which may be strong, are possible mainly during the
mid-late afternoon through the early evening. Large hail will be
possible with the more intense updrafts and scattered wind damage
may occur where clustering of storms becomes more prevalent. Storms
will likely continue eastward into the evening with some risk for
severe being maintained before more substantive weakening occurs
with storm activity as it nears the MS Valley late.
Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and
evening along/south of the cold front across parts of southeast OK
into north TX. This activity will be mostly displaced to the south
of stronger westerly mid-level flow. Still, isolated to widely
scattered hail and severe gusts may occur with the more robust cores
given moderate instability and modest deep-layer shear forecast.
...Mid-Atlantic...
Downstream of a broad/weak mid-level trough over the eastern CONUS,
scattered thunderstorms should develop by early to mid afternoon
within a moist/weakly unstable airmass. Around 20-25 kt of
deep-layer shear may support loosely organized clusters with a risk
of locally damaging winds before this activity weakens this evening.
..Smith/Wendt.. 09/23/2025
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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