Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Tue Aug 05 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with a threat for severe gusts and large
hail will be possible across parts of the Dakotas today into this
evening.
...Northern Plains...
An upper shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will shift east
across the Dakotas and the Canadian Prairies today/tonight. At the
surface, a cold front will develop east/southeast across MT into the
western Dakotas during the afternoon. Ahead of the front
southeasterly low-level flow will maintain low to mid 60s dewpoints
beneath steep midlevel lapse rates. This will support moderate to
strong destabilization across portions of the western Dakotas and
western NE (MLCAPE 2500+ J/kg), with more modest destabilization
further north and east.
Around 30-40 kt of mid/upper level northwesterly flow atop
vertically veering low-level wind profiles will support supercell
storms initially across western portions of the outlook area. This
will overlap with the corridor of stronger instability and scattered
storms produce large hail and strong/severe gusts will be possible.
Toward evening, a 30-40 kt southerly low-level jet is expected to
develop and upscale development into an MCS is possible across
eastern portions of the outlook area. Forecast guidance varies
regarding the degree of capping that will exist with eastward
extent, but potential for an organized MCS producing strong/severe
gusts appears possible across eastern SD, and may persist
east/southeast toward the Mid-MO Valley during the nighttime hours.
..Leitman/Weinman.. 08/05/2025
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