Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sun Aug 03 2025
Valid 040100Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS....
...SUMMARY...
Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts will remain possible
through this evening and tonight over parts of the southern Plains.
More isolated severe gusts and hail are possible across the central
Plains.
...Southern Plains...
A cluster of severe thunderstorms, including a couple of intense
supercells is ongoing across portions of southwestern KS early this
evening. Current WV imagery shows the left exit region of a
pronounced upper-level jet streak (estimated 80-90 kt at 250 mb)
nosing into parts of the southern Plains ahead of a northwesterly
flow shortwave trough. Locally strong ascent with these features
should continue to support the convection across southwestern KS as
it moves into OK/TX this evening. Long/straight hodographs (around
50 kt of effective shear) and moderate surface-based buoyancy within
the modifying air mass should continue to promote storm splits and
embedded cells capable of producing very large hail and severe gusts
this evening.
Sufficient cold pool amalgamation has likely occurred to sustain
forward propagation of the convective system as a whole over the
next several hours into tonight. This appears most probable over the
western third of OK and the eastern half of the TX Panhandle. Severe
gusts (some potentially 75+ mph) are likely along with hail and a
tornado or two in the more cellular elements. While the air mass
downstream across parts of central and eastern OK is less unstable
due to prior convection, some recovery and the presence of modest
low-level jet should be enough to support storms with occasional
severe potential. Uncertainty remains quite high on the southern
extent of the severe risk into the TX South Plains and western Red
River Valley, but some potential for damaging gusts may continue
overnight.
Across the southern High Plains, convection has struggled to
develop/maintain intensity along the lee trough due to lingering
subsidence and inhibition, evident on the 00z AMA sounding. A modest
low-level jet response (25-30 kt) could allow for isolated storm
development through this evening, though confidence in this
occurring is low. With a similar environment to the east, a
conditional supercell environment remains in place. Will maintain
level 2 SlGT risk for the potential of a supercell with a risk for
severe hail and wind gusts.
...Northwest...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
ahead of a well-defined shortwave trough over northern CA. Modest
low-level moisture is supporting 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE sufficient
for occasional stronger updrafts. A belt of enhanced southwesterly
flow is also in place, aiding in some storm organization. With steep
low-level lapse rates, evaporatively cooled downdrafts and outflow
will potentially yield a risk for severe gusts through tonight.
..Lyons.. 08/04/2025
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