Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025
Valid 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible in parts of the
central and southern High Plains through tonight. Isolated large
hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threats.
...Central and Southern High Plains...
Numerous thunderstorms have developed over the central High Plains
early this evening aided by low-level upslope flow and weak ascent
from a shortwave trough progressing through the Rockies. Enhanced
west/northwesterly flow aloft near the upper trough has resulted in
a few organized storms and supercells so far. Modest surface winds
have generally favored more outflow dominant structures, and this is
likely to continue this evening. Upscale growth into an organized
cluster or linear MCS is likely as storms continue across eastern CO
and into parts of NE and western KS. A few supercell structures may
remain organized for some time this evening, supporting some risk
for hail given 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 kt of deep-layer
shear. However, as outflow continues to strengthen and consolidate,
the damaging wind threat is expected to increase with time.
Observational trends and evening CAM guidance suggest supercells
across southeastern CO should continue to merge into a stronger
cluster moving southeast into parts of southwestern KS and
eventually the TX/OK Panhandles tonight. Hail and damaging gusts are
likely with this activity through the next couple of hours. Surface
dewpoints in the 60s contributing to moderate/large buoyancy and a
30-35 kt low-level jet could support additional organization into a
more linear system tonight. This would favor an increased risk for
damaging gusts. See MCD#1874 for additional short-term information.
...Northern High Plains...
Broad troughing over the West has aided in the development of
scattered thunderstorms across the higher terrain of southern MT
into northern WY early this evening. While vertical shear is overall
modest, (generally less than 25 kt) a few loosely organized
thunderstorm clusters may emerge from the higher terrain into the
northern High Plains this evening. With sufficient MLCAPE (1000-1500
J/kg) for robust updrafts, any persistent clusters with stronger
downdrafts will be potentially capable of isolated severe gusts
(60-70 mph) before weakening overnight.
..Lyons.. 08/03/2025
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