Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible in parts of the central
and southern High Plains late this afternoon into tonight. Large to
very large hail and severe wind gusts (60-80 mph) are the primary
threats.
...20z...
The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments
made to the significant hail/wind areas. Recent HRRR/RRFS solutions
appear to be capturing ongoing convective trends well as
thunderstorms begin to develop within the central Rockies and along
a lee trough in eastern CO (see MCD #1872 for additional details).
These deterministic CAM runs and time-lagged ensembles continue to
suggest that initially semi-discrete/scattered thunderstorms will
undergo some degree of upscale growth through the late evening hours
with an uptick in severe wind potential, but continue to show
disparity/spread regarding the emergence of a more
predominant/intense convective line. Although the environment will
be supportive of significant wind gusts (especially across southeast
CO/southwest KS into the OK/TX Panhandles), it remains unclear where
the corridor of greatest severe wind potential will emerge. Higher
wind probabilities were withheld for this reason. See the previous
discussion below for additional details.
..Moore.. 08/02/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Aug 02 2025/
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a low-amplitude
shortwave trough moving east through the eastern Great Basin and
into the central Rockies this afternoon and adjacent plains tonight.
An attendant belt of strong westerly high-level flow extends from
the base of a trough over the eastern Pacific eastward across the
Great Basin and into KS.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop
over the higher terrain of the Sangre de Cristos and Front Range
this afternoon before moving east into the plains. Additional
storms may also develop in the vicinity of a residual frontal zone
draped north-south over eastern CO. Strong heating over the High
Plains coupled with dewpoints ranging from near 50 deg F near I-25
to the lower 60s over western KS and mid 60s in the eastern half of
the TX Panhandle, will favor moderate to strong buoyancy developing
by mid to late afternoon. Forecast soundings show very steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (8-9 deg C/km) near and west of the 102 deg W
parallel (KS-CO border). Elongated hodographs will support
supercells with some of the stronger updrafts early in the
convective cycle. Large to very large hail will be the primary
hazard with these storms but a brief window of opportunity may exist
for a tornado during the early evening transition when low-level
southerly flow increases.
It is likely a few clusters of storms will evolve during the evening
with one or more clusters persisting through the evening and into
the overnight, especially across the TX Panhandle. Severe gusts
will become the predominant hazard with time as a linear storm
morphology evolves and outflow becomes much more widespread.
...Northern High Plains...
Glancing large-scale ascent augmenting orographic effects is
forecast to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this
afternoon across the higher terrain over northern WY and southern
MT. The stronger evaporatively cooled downdrafts will be
potentially capable of isolated severe gusts (60-70 mph).
...Southeast...
Low-level convergence in the vicinity of a weakening cold front and
ample low-level moisture will support widespread thunderstorm
development across the Southeast. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be maximized over southern AL, southern GA, and FL
Panhandle/northern FL. Vertical shear is very weak, with a pulse,
multicellular storm mode anticipated. Water-loaded downdrafts may
yield strong to locally severe gusts (50-60 mph) capable of pockets
of wind damage during the afternoon and early evening.
...Northern Great Basin...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough moving east across the northern NV
border region will be the impetus for scattered afternoon and early
evening thunderstorms. Forecast soundings show very steep low and
mid-level lapse rates and scant buoyancy during the 21-02 UTC
period. Eastward-moving cells and coalesced outflow will yield a
risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger dry microbursts.
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