Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Mon Aug 18 2025
Valid 181300Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST....
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible in
parts of the Midwest today. Widely scattered storms with large hail
and severe winds are possible in parts of the central/northern
Plains through tonight.
...IA/WI/IL...
A long-lived MCS continues to track eastward across central IA this
morning. Visible satellite imagery shows the potential for
considerable daytime heating ahead of this activity across parts of
eastern IA/southern WI/northern IL, where temperatures will warm
into the 90s. Ample low-level moisture will yield afternoon MLCAPE
values around 3000 J/kg, along with sufficient westerly flow aloft
for some convective organization. It is unclear whether current
activity will intensify, or new storms will form later today.
Regardless, this region will see the potential for strong/severe
storms capable of damaging wind gusts. A tornado or two is also
possible, given the backed low-level winds and east-west baroclinic
zone along the WI/IL border. Have added a SLGT risk for this
scenario.
...Northeast CO into SD/NE/KS...
Strong heating and ample low/mid level moisture will promote the
development of scattered thunderstorms by mid-afternoon over the
foothills and plains of central/eastern CO. Other more isolated
storms are expected farther north across western NE into the Black
Hills region. All of these storms will be relatively high-based,
posing a risk of damaging wind gusts. Sufficient westerly flow will
also aid in a few transient supercells capable of large hail. These
storms may persist into the evening, tracking into central NE before
weakening.
...MO/AR...
Clear skies are evident this morning across central/southern MO and
much of AR. Hot and humid conditions will ensue with temperatures
reaching the upper 90s. Most CAM solutions suggest widely scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development in this environment of steep
low-level lapse rates and 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE. The strongest
storms will be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.
..Hart/Dean.. 08/18/2025
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