Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of
2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible.
..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains...
A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest
U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains
this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to
moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of
deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated
thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent
with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms
will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater
in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is
expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly
significant, becomes a greater concern.
Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly
mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters
will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening.
...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...
A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and
the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies
will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest
large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse,
combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will
support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing
isolated severe wind gusts.
...Maine...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in
association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability
should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly
mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient
supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the
primary severe hazard.
...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity...
Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving
north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for
details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells
may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level
shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of
the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple
tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop
within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability.
..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025
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