Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025
Valid 060100Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern High
Plains into tonight. Isolated large hail and severe winds gusts are
also possible over the southern High Plains.
...Northern High Plains...
Ahead of a progressive shortwave trough and associated 50-kt
midlevel jet (per VWP data), an upscale-growing cluster of
thunderstorms is advancing east-southeastward from southeast
MT/northeast WY into western SD -- with recent signs of a
rear-inflow jet. Ahead of this cluster, the UNR 00Z sounding sampled
sufficient surface-based instability and an elongated/straight
hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear), for the maintenance of
this activity with east-southeastward extent. The primary concern
will be scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible). See
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 487/488 and MCD 1572 for details.
...Southern High Plains...
Along the northeastern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered over
the Southwest, around 20-30 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow and
steep deep-layer lapse rates/strong buoyancy (see DDC 00Z sounding)
are supporting a few transient severe cells and clusters. Isolated
large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with the
stronger/more persistent storms.
...Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorms are spreading eastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability is marginal, enhanced low/midlevel flow
(sampled by VWP) may promote locally damaging gusts with any loosely
organized clusters that evolve.
...Coastal Carolinas...
Tropical Storm Chantal will continue tracking northward toward the
SC Coast. Locally enhanced low-level shear ahead of the storm may
promote a couple low-topped supercell structures in the outer rain
bands, with a low-end risk of a couple tornadoes.
..Weinman.. 07/06/2025
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