LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Valid 251630Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...NORTHERN PLAINS...AND PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN
MISSOURI...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern
Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon. Severe storms will also be
possible across much of North Dakota as well as eastern Kansas into
western Missouri.
...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
Midday vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
progressing eastward into Quebec. An associated cold front will move
south-southeastward across New England this afternoon. Relatively
hot/humid conditions ahead of the front will lead to widely
scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern New England and
eastern portions of New York/Pennsylvania. These storms will track
southeastward toward the coast through the early evening with
damaging winds possible.
...Northern Plains including North Dakota...
An upper ridge remains centered over the central Plains, with a weak
southern-stream trough currently moving across Utah into Wyoming.
Weak lift and increased mid-level moisture ahead of the system will
aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms by late afternoon
across parts of eastern Montana and northeast Wyoming. Thermodynamic
parameters are favorable for large hail in the stronger cells. It
seems that these storms will tend to persist east-northeastward this
evening and pose a risk of hail and locally damaging winds across
North Dakota.
...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
Regional WSR-88D VWP data continues to sample modestly enhanced
low/mid-tropospheric flow in relation to a slow-moving MCV, notable
from KEAX where 35-40 kt west-southwesterly flow persists between
3-5 km AGL. With a very moist air mass in place (low to middle 70s F
surface dewpoints), intensifying storms could include supercells
given some likely persistence of the enhanced flow field. Especially
with a convectively reinforced surface boundary, a semi-focused
corridor of damaging winds and brief tornado potential could evolve
this afternoon into early evening.
...Northern California/western Nevada...
Aside from the dry thunderstorm potential (see Fire Weather Day 1
Outlook), sufficient moisture/buoyancy may exist on the eastern and
northern periphery of the slow-moving upper low, where mid-level
temperatures (-12C at 500mb) are semi-cool, to allow for some hail
and/or convectively enhanced wind gusts this afternoon through
around sunset.
..Guyer/Supinie.. 07/25/2025
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