LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will pose a risk of
damaging wind gusts across parts of New England and the northern Mid
Atlantic later today. Severe storms will also be possible across
much of North Dakota.
...Northeast into the northern Mid Atlantic...
A vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across
southern Quebec and northern New England later today. A cold front
will move across the Northeast and northern Mid Atlantic through the
day and into the evening. Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop
along/ahead of the front during the afternoon. Storm coverage is
somewhat uncertain due to veered low-level flow and relatively weak
frontal convergence, but isolated to widely scattered storm
development will be possible along/ahead of the front. Effective
shear of 25-35 kt will be favorable for some storm organization, and
a few organized clusters and/or marginal supercells may develop,
with a primary threat of damaging gusts during the afternoon and
evening before convection weakens or moves offshore.
...Northern Great Plains...
A midlevel shortwave trough and surface low will move eastward
across parts of AB/SK today. A surface trough will extend southward
from the low across the northern High Plains vicinity. Relatively
rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of the surface
trough, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates. Moderate buoyancy
may develop as far west as eastern MT this afternoon, with very
strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 2500-4000 J/kg) expected over the
Dakotas.
Stronger large-scale ascent will be across Canada, resulting in
uncertainty regarding storm coverage and evolution during the
afternoon and evening. The bulk of 00Z HREF guidance depicts at
least isolated development near the surface trough across parts of
southeast MT, potentially aided by one or more low-amplitude
midlevel vorticity maxima moving through southwesterly flow aloft.
Some guidance also initiates storms farther east into
central/eastern ND, within a weakly capped but also weakly forced
environment.
Deep-layer flow will be relatively modest, but sufficient to support
effective shear of 25-35 kt. Initially high-based convection across
eastern MT may intensify as it moves eastward into ND, with some
potential for development of a storm cluster or MCS capable of
producing strong to severe gusts. Any diurnal development across
central/eastern ND would pose a threat of hail, localized severe
gusts, and possibly a tornado, given modestly enlarged low-level
hodographs. A Slight Risk has been added where there is sufficient
consensus among CAM and global guidance for storm development within
a generally favorable environment.
...Central Plains into the Midwest...
Multiple MCVs may impact areas from the central Plains into the
Midwest later today. The most prominent of these is expected to move
northeast across parts of KS, within a very moist and unstable
environment. Deep-layer shear may become sufficient for organized
clusters or marginal supercell structures, with a threat of
localized damaging gusts. Depending on the extent of low-level SRH
enhancement (which varies among guidance), a tornado may also be
possible.
Other MCVs may move from parts of MO/IL into IN/OH through the day
and into the evening. Their impact on organized severe potential is
uncertain, but if sufficient destabilization can occur ahead of
these features, then localized wind damage will be possible.
..Dean/Squitieri.. 07/25/2025
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