Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the High Plains
from southwestern Kansas into west Texas. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.
...Central/Southern High Plains...
Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the
day1 period as broad upper ridging holds across northeast Mexico
into the lower MS Valley. Along the northern periphery of this
feature, a few weak disturbances are forecast to translate across
the southwestern U.S. into the southern/central High Plains region.
Each of these features should encourage potentially robust, deep
convection.
Early this morning, a notable MCS has evolved over the TX Panhandle.
This complex has been partly aided by a low-amplitude short-wave
trough that will translate into eastern KS/OK later today. While
this convection is currently well-organized, with time this activity
should gradually weaken downstream over western OK/northwest TX. Of
potential concern will be the influence on boundary-layer stability
and the position of convective outflow boundaries. If the MCS
continues as currently anticipated, a possible demarcation in
buoyancy may extend across the TX South Plains into far eastern NM
by peak heating. Remnant outflow will likely serve as the focus for
robust convection later this afternoon as temperatures warm into the
mid 80s-lower 90s, west and south of the outflow. Forecast soundings
along this corridor exhibit strong deep-layer shear and substantial
0-3km SRH. Supercells should develop across the southern High Plains
and very large hail may accompany these robust updrafts.
Additionally, profiles appear favorable for tornadoes, especially if
the aforementioned convective outflow maintains some identity.
A secondary area of potential convective concentration will be
across southeast CO into southwest KS. Models suggest strong
boundary-layer heating will develop across northeast NM into the
western OK Panhandle, just south of a secondary weak frontal zone
that should drape itself across this region. Supercells should
easily develop along this boundary then possibly grow upscale into a
larger complex of storms as it spreads downstream along the KS/OK
border after sunset. All hazards are possible with this activity,
but any tornado threat will likely be concentrated with more
isolated supercells early in the convective evolution.
...Elsewhere...
High-PW plume currently stretches across the lower MS Valley-OH
Valley-lower Great Lakes-southeast Canada. Scattered convection will
readily develop along this corridor, juxtaposed along a weak frontal
zone. Poor lapse rates should limit updraft strength, but some risk
for an isolated severe wind gust does exist.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 06/05/2025
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