Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into the
evening across portions of the southern High Plains. Large hail and
severe wind gusts are the primary concerns. Locally damaging winds
may accompany convection that develops from the southern Great Lakes
into eastern Texas.
...20z Update...
The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor
adjustments needed, which were mainly adjusting risk probabilities
behind the cold front across eastern TX and ahead of developing
convection across parts of the Midwest. For additional details
regarding short-term trends across New Mexico, east Texas, and parts
of the mid-MS River Valley, see MCD #1110, #1111, and #1112
respectively.
..Moore.. 06/04/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025/
...Southern Rockies into the Southern High Plains...
Morning water-vapor imagery depicts a southern-stream midlevel
shortwave trough moving eastward across AZ, which is accompanied by
a 40-kt speed maximum in its base. Modest large-scale ascent
preceding this feature will promote scattered thunderstorm
development from the Southwest into the southern Rockies this
afternoon (within the steepening low-level lapse rate plume), which
will eventually spread eastward into the southern High Plains this
evening. A modest uptick in storm intensity/organization is possible
as storms move into east-central NM and eventually the TX Panhandle,
given an elongated/straight hodograph (40-50 kt of effective shear)
and steepening deep-layer lapse rates amid recycled boundary-layer
moisture. A few organized clusters and supercell structures will be
capable of producing large hail and locally severe wind gusts.
Farther south over the TX Trans-Pecos, lingering inhibition and
weaker large-scale ascent cast uncertainty on storm
development/coverage, though isolated large hail and severe gusts
will be possible with any storms that can evolve over the higher
terrain this afternoon -- aided by moderate surface-based
instability and around 50 kt of effective shear.
...Southern Great Lakes southward through the OH Valley and Ozarks
into East Texas...
A quasi-stationary cold front is draped from Lake Huron
southwestward across the Ozarks into East TX. From roughly the
Ozarks northeastward to eastern Lower MI, VWP data indicates a belt
of 40-55-kt midlevel southwesterly flow, which will gradually shift
northeastward into this evening. While 12Z regional soundings
sampled poor midlevel lapse rates through this corridor,
differential heating amid lower/middle 60s dewpoints ahead of the
front and related convection will contribute to a weakly unstable
air mass. This, combined with 40-50 kt of effective shear, will
support loosely organized clusters (and perhaps transient/embedded
supercell structures) capable of locally damaging wind gusts this
afternoon. While a more-focused corridor of wind-damage potential is
possible over southeast Lower MI into northeast IN, a lack of
large-scale ascent, weak instability/lapse rates, and front-parallel
deep-layer flow/shear limits confidence in this scenario --
precluding an upgrade to 15-percent wind probabilities at this time.
Farther south into East TX, diurnal heating of fully modified Gulf
moisture (middle 70s dewpoints) will result in stronger buoyancy,
though deep-layer shear will be weaker here. As a result, locally
severe gusts will be possible with predominantly outflow-dominant
convection this afternoon.
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