Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CDT Thu Jun 26 2025
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes and isolated wind damage will be possible this
afternoon from northern Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. Isolated
wind damage will be possible across a broad area of the eastern
Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast and Montana.
...Northern IA/southwest WI area this afternoon...
A weak midlevel trough over NE, enhanced by overnight convection,
will progress east-northeastward over IA during the afternoon, along
with an associated/weak wave along a surface baroclinic zone.
Modest enhancement to vertical shear along the baroclinic zone, and
MLCAPE near or above 2500 J/kg will support the potential for a band
of storms along and ahead of the front this afternoon. The
initial/more discrete storms could be supercells with the potential
to produce a few tornadoes, in addition to isolated wind damage and
marginally severe hail. Convection will likely grow upscale into a
line by late afternoon, and the severe threat will begin to diminish
by late evening.
...Southeast today...
Around the southeast periphery of a weakening midlevel high over KY,
a midlevel low will drift slowly west-northwestward over FL and
weaken gradually through tonight. Widespread convection is still
ongoing from late Wednesday evening across AL/GA, with relatively
widespread convective overturning and associated outflow. Remnant
outflows and differential heating zones will play a role in
additional thunderstorm development later this afternoon, though
regional reductions in surface temperatures/moisture from yesterday
will make the environment less favorable for widespread damaging
downbursts compared to Wednesday. Given the mesoscale complexity of
the pattern and reductions in lapse rates/buoyancy, will hold off on
adding any SLGT risk/15% wind areas in this outlook. However, some
part of GA/AL/MS may need to be reconsidered in later updates.
...OH Valley into the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon in
association with daytime heating, residual boundaries from prior
convection, and terrain circulations. Though vertical shear will be
weak, steepening low-level lapse rates and precipitation loading
could support isolated wind damage with downbursts from mid
afternoon into the evening.
...Western OK to northeast KS this afternoon/evening...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon along
and ahead of weak front across KS, and farther to the south into the
strongly heated airmass and east edge of the midlevel moisture plume
now across west TX. Vertical shear will be weak through this
corridor, but thermodynamic profiles will favor strong downdrafts
and the potential for isolated strong-severe outflow gusts for a few
hours this afternoon/evening.
...MT this afternoon/evening...
A subtle midlevel trough and associated/diffuse front will move
across the northern Rockies this afternoon into tonight. Deep
mixing and inverted-V profiles will favor some potential for
strong-severe outflow gusts with scattered high-based thunderstorms
along and ahead of the diffuse front this afternoon into this
evening.
..Thompson/Moore.. 06/26/2025
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