Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Valid 252000Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
EASTERN GEORGIA...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
COLORADO INTO PARTS OF IOWA...MINNESOTA...AND WISCONSIN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are expected from parts of the Carolinas into the
Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
from the northern/central High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of 5-percent
tornado probabilities along the warm front in southeast MN,
northeast IA, and far west-central WI. Here, a moist boundary layer
(lower 70s dewpoints) is gradually destabilizing amid diurnal
heating within cloud breaks. This continued destabilization and
clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (sampled by ARX/MPX VWPs)
should support a locally favorable corridor for a couple supercell
tornadoes -- especially with additional strengthening of the
low-level jet. For details on the severe risks in the Southeast and
central Plains, see Severe Thunderstorm Watches 459 and 460.
..Weinman.. 06/25/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025/
...Southeast US...
An unusually favorable thermodynamic pattern has evolved across the
southeast US today, with very steep mid-level lapse rates, cool
temperatures aloft, and strong daytime heating. Surface dewpoints
in the 70s will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 3500 J/kg.
Large scale forcing is weak, suggesting convective initiation will
be poorly focused. However, most 12z CAM solutions show several
clusters of storms through the afternoon spreading southward from NC
into SC and eastern GA. Vertical shear is rather weak, suggesting
storms will be rather disorganized. However, there is a conditional
risk for an active day across the ENH risk, with considerable
coverage of damaging wind reports possible. As storms spread
southwestward this evening across GA, the risk of locally damaging
wind gusts will continue.
...NE/IA/MN...
Visible satellite imagery shows a developing differential heating
zone extending from south-central NE into central IA. Full sun to
the south of this zone will lead to strong instability and scattered
afternoon thunderstorm development. A band of 30-40 knot
southwesterly flow aloft atop this zone, coupled with strengthening
southerly low-level winds, will encourage organized/bowing clusters
of storms capable of damaging winds and some hail. A tornado or two
cannot be ruled out.
...CO/KS...
Thunderstorms will once again develop off the higher terrain of
CO/WY this afternoon and spread into the Plains. Model guidance
suggests steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE for severe
wind potential as these storms track toward northwest KS/southwest
NE by early evening.
...OH/WV...
Hot and humid conditions are present today across much of southern
OH into northern WV. Visible satellite imagery shows a developing
CU field, which may result in scattered slow-moving afternoon
thunderstorms. Winds aloft are rather weak, but the strongest cells
in this corridor may be capable of locally damaging wind gusts.
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