Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS...SOUTHEAST...AND MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts are possible from parts of the Carolinas into the
Southeast, with widely scattered strong to severe storms possible
from the northern High Plains eastward to the Mid Atlantic.
...Carolinas/Southeast...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain over the southeastern U.S.
today. Beneath this large area of high pressure, a very moist
airmass will be in place from the southern and central Appalachians
to the Eastern Seaboard. Surface dewpoints will be mostly from the
upper 60s to the mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm today,
moderate to strong instability is expected over much of this moist
airmass. Model forecasts suggest that low-level convergence will
lead to convective development over far southern Virginia and
northern North Carolina around midday. This convection is expected
to increase in coverage, moving south to southwestward across the
Carolinas. A line is expected to gradually organize during the
afternoon.
At 21Z, RAP forecast soundings along the instability axis in the
Carolinas, suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg
range, and that a substantial amount of DCAPE will exist. 0-3 km
lapse rates are forecast to reach the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. In
addition, forecast soundings have inverted-V profiles, with 0-6 km
shear in the 15 to 20 knot range. This should be favorable for
damaging wind gusts, associated with pulse storms and multicells. If
a line segment can organize ahead of a cold pool, then the
wind-damage potential could cover a somewhat large area from the
Carolinas southwestward into the eastern Gulf Coast states.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid to Upper Mississippi
Valleys...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place today from the
central Plains into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. At the
surface, a low is forecast to develop over the central Plains. To
the east of the low, low-level moisture is forecast to be maximized,
with surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F
across most of the mid Missouri Valley. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, scattered convective initiation is expected from
western and central Nebraska east-northeastward into Iowa, southern
Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Along this corridor, a low-level
jet will strengthen during the late afternoon and early evening.
This, combined with 30 to 35 knots of deep-layer shear, moderate
instability and steep low-level lapse rates will be favorable for a
severe threat. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with
organized multicell line segments.
...Central and Northern High Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
southern and central Rockies today. Ahead of the trough, a moist and
unstable airmass will be in place by afternoon from eastern Colorado
northwestward into eastern Montana. As surface temperatures warm
today, scattered convective initiation will take place in the higher
terrain, with storms moving east-northeastward into the lower
elevations during the afternoon. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep
low to mid-level lapse rates will support a marginal severe threat,
mainly in areas that heat up the most. A few damaging wind gusts and
hail will be the primary threats.
..Broyles/Moore.. 06/25/2025
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