Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025
Valid 242000Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SEPARATELY OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe wind gusts are likely this afternoon and
evening in parts of the central and northern High Plains. Damaging
wind gusts are also expected across parts of northern New York into
Vermont this afternoon.
...20Z Update...
The primary change with this update was the addition of a Slight
Risk (driven by 15-percent wind probabilities) over parts of
northern NY into northern VT. Here, temperatures have warmed into
the upper 80s/lower 90s amid upper 60s/lower 70s dewpoints --
contributing to moderate-strong surface-based instability. As storms
continue tracking/developing eastward into northern NY, around 40 kt
of deep-layer shear accompanying a glancing midlevel speed maximum
should promote several small/loosely organized storm clusters
capable of producing damaging wind gusts through this afternoon. For
details on the severe risk in the central High Plains, reference
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 458.
..Weinman.. 06/24/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/
...High Plains...
Deep east-southeasterly upslope flow is present this morning across
the High Plains of WY/CO. Surface dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s,
coupled with thinning clouds and strong afternoon heating will yield
a corridor of moderate CAPE across much of eastern WY and
northeast/east-central CO. Thunderstorms are expected to initiate
off the higher terrain by early afternoon and spread northeastward
with risk of large hail and damaging wind gusts for several hours.
...Lower MI/Northern IN/OH...
A weak surface cold front extends across southern Lower MI today,
with dewpoints in the low-mid 70s to the south of the boundary.
This air mass is heating rapidly and should become very unstable,
leading to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Hot surface
temperatures and steep low-level lapse rates will promote
gusty/damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.
...TN/NC/VA Mountains...
A hot and humid surface air mass is in place today over the
mountains of east TN, western NC, and southern VA. This should lead
to widely scattered thunderstorm development. Winds aloft are weak,
but steep low-mid level lapse rates, ample dry air aloft, and
considerable CAPE will promote strong downdrafts and small hail in
the strongest cells.
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