Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUHT-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe gusts and hail will be possible
today across parts of the southern Plains and Sabine River Valley.
Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Upper
Midwest and northwestern states.
...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move eastward across the
southern Plains today. Ahead of the trough, flow will be
southwesterly across much of the eastern half of Texas. At the
surface, a moist airmass will remain in place from the eastern Texas
Hill Country eastward into the Sabine River Valley, where surface
dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. Early in the period, a
line of storms is expected to move eastward across this moist
airmass. The line will likely lay out an outflow boundary across
parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. To the south of this boundary,
moderate instability is expected to develop by afternoon.
Thunderstorm development will be most likely along and near the
boundary during the mid to late afternoon, with multiple clusters of
storms moving eastward across central and southeast Texas. RAP
forecast soundings across the Texas Coastal Plain at 21Z have a
MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear around 30 knots.
The environment should support a severe threat, associated with
supercells and/or short bowing line segments. Wind damage will be
the primary threat, although hail will also be possible.
...Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains...
A shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies today. At
the surface, a moist airmass will be in place from the northern
Rockies eastward into the northern High Plains. Destabilization will
occur during the day across this airmass as surface temperatures
warm. Models forecasts suggest that MLCAPE could reach 1000 J/kg in
some areas. By early to mid afternoon, convection is expected to
develop in the higher terrain, with storms moving eastward into the
lower elevations. Forecast soundings across the region suggest that
low to mid-level lapse rates will become very steep, and that
moderate deep-layer shear will be present. For this reason, a threat
for hail and isolated severe gusts will be possible, especially near
and after peak heating.
...Upper Midwest...
West-northwesterly mid-level flow will be in place today from the
northern Plains eastward into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a
cold front will move slowly southward across the mid Missouri and
upper Mississippi Valleys. This front will be a focus for convective
development today. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in
the 60s F will likely contribute to moderate instability by
afternoon. Although deep-layer shear will be relatively weak,
low-level lapse rates are forecast to become very steep, locally
exceeding 9 C/km in some areas. Thunderstorms that develop on the
warm side of the boundary where lapse rates are maximized could
develop a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts and hail.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/11/2025
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