Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR WEST TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening
across parts of far southeast New Mexico, far West Texas and the Rio
Grande Valley. Marginally severe storms will be possible from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley,
along parts of the Atlantic Coastal states, in northern
California/southern Oregon and in parts of the northern Rockies.
...Far Southeast New Mexico/Far West Texas/Rio Grande Valley...
A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move southeastward across
New Mexico today. At the surface, a moist axis will be located
across the lower to middle Rio Grande Valley, where moderate
instability is expected to be in place by afternoon. As instability
becomes maximized, scattered thunderstorms will likely develop ahead
of the trough in the higher terrain of southeast New Mexico and far
West Texas. This convection will spread southeastward into the Rio
Grande Valley. RAP forecast soundings at 21Z to the east of the
Davis Mountains of west Texas have MLCAPE reaching 3500 J/kg. 0-6 km
shear is forecast to be in the 40 to 45 knot range, with 700-500 mb
lapse rates approaching 9 C/Km. This environment will be favorable
for supercells with large hail. The more intense cores could produce
hailstone greater than 2 inches in diameter. In addition, the storms
will be high-based with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates in the
low-levels. This will contribute to a potential for isolated severe
wind gusts. The severe threat should gradually spread southeastward
across far West Texas in the late afternoon, moving into the lower
Rio Grande Valley during early evening.
...Southern Plains/Sabine River and Lower Mississippi Valleys...
Mid-level flow will become westerly today from parts of the southern
Plains into the central Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be in place across much of the region. Short-term model
forecasts suggest that a convective cluster or line could be ongoing
at the start of the period across the western Texas Hill Country. If
this occurs, then these storms could pose a marginal severe threat
as they move eastward from central Texas into southeast Texas late
this morning and early this afternoon. A few marginally severe
storms could also develop further east into the lower Mississippi
Valley, as surface temperatures and instability become maximized
during the late afternoon.
...Atlantic Coastal States...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys today. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place
ahead of the trough in the Atlantic Coastal states. As temperatures
warm, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the early afternoon from parts of the Carolinas northward to
the vicinity of New York City. The strongest instability will be
located in the Carolinas, where steep low-level lapse rates will
contribute to a potential for marginally severe wind gusts. Further
north into the Mid-Atlantic, the combination of instability and
deep-layer shear could also be sufficient for an isolated severe
threat. As convection moves eastward out of the higher terrain
during the early to mid afternoon, short multicell line segments
could produce marginally severe wind gusts.
...Northern California/Southern Oregon...
Mid-level flow will become increasingly southwesterly across parts
of the West Coast today. A pocket of instability is expected to
develop by afternoon from northern California into southern Oregon.
As surface temperatures warm within this pocket, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain. This
convection will move eastward into the lower elevations during the
late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings in northern California and
southern Oregon at 21Z have MLCAPE peaking in the 500 to 1000 J/kg
range, with surface temperature-dewpoint spreads exceeding 30
degrees F. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates could be
sufficient for a marginally severe gusts and hail.
...Northern Rockies...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to move eastward across the northern
Rockies today. In spite of limited large-scale ascent, isolated
thunderstorms will likely develop in the higher terrain of the
northern Rockies by afternoon. Weak instability and large
surface-temperature-dewpoint spreads could be enough for marginally
severe wind gusts as storms move into the lower elevations during
the afternoon. Hail will also be possible.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 06/10/2025
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