Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
Valid 312000Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe outflow gusts remain possible late this
afternoon into tonight from southern Kansas across central Oklahoma
to the Red River. Isolated strong to severe storms may still occur
this afternoon over parts of the Mid-Atlantic coastal region.
...20Z Update...
The main changes made to the updated Day 1 Convective Outlook were
to remove Slight Risk probabilities across the Mid Atlantic, and
remove Marginal Risk probabilities across the southern FL Peninsula.
Over the Mid-Atlantic, a loosely organized MCS has moved offshore,
leaving an overturned airmass in its wake. Though thunderstorms
remain possible in this area, buoyancy should be diluted enough to
reduce the severe threat to some degree. Similarly, the passage of
strong thunderstorms, along with residual cloud cover, will also
limit additional thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula,
though a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out.
Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track.
..Squitieri.. 05/31/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025/
...KS/OK...
Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough
digging southward across the Dakotas. This feature will approach KS
by late afternoon, and track into the southern Plains overnight.
Strong heating and steep lapse rates ahead of the trough, combined
with increasing large scale ascent, will result in scattered
thunderstorms over eastern NE/northern KS with a risk of hail and
gusty winds. As this activity moves southward into a progressively
more moist/unstable air mass, thunderstorm intensification is
expected - mainly after dark. Storms will continue southward across
southern KS into OK, with a few supercells expected capable of large
hail and damaging winds. Storms may persist into the overnight
hours across southern OK/north TX.
...DelMarVa...
A broad upper trough is present today over the northeast states,
with a compact shortwave trough over southwest PA approaching the
DelMarVa region. This system will promote afternoon convective
development from southeast PA into eastern VA, with storms spreading
across eastern MD/DE/southern NJ before tracking offshore. Cool
temperatures aloft and sufficient westerly mid-level winds suggest
the potential for thunderstorm organization and a few severe storms
capable of damaging winds and hail. Refer to MCD #1054 for further
details.
...South FL...
A sagging cold front will continue to result in a few strong
thunderstorms across south FL this afternoon, capable of locally
gusty winds. Refer to MCD #1053 for further details.
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