Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025
Valid 010100Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHERN KS INTO OK AND EXTREME NORTH-CENTRAL TX...
...SUMMARY...
Large hail and severe gusts remain possible tonight from southern
Kansas across Oklahoma to the Red River.
...Central/southern Plains...
Storms have been slow to develop along a weak surface boundary
across southern KS. However, storm coverage is expected to increase
with time later this evening as a vigorous mid/upper-level shortwave
trough digs south-southeastward from Nebraska. Increasing deep-layer
flow/shear, cooling temperatures aloft, and moderate buoyancy will
support scattered strong to potentially severe storms, with a threat
of large hail and localized severe gusts. Elevated storms may tend
to redevelop during the overnight hours, and it remains possible
that one or more clusters will evolve and move south-southeastward
toward the Red River before the end of the forecast period.
Farther north, a few strong storms may persist through the evening
from southeast NE into eastern KS and western MO. Effective shear is
weaker in this region compared to areas to the southwest, but
relatively cool temperatures aloft could support isolated hail with
the strongest storms.
...VA/NC...
A general weakening trend is expected to continue with ongoing
convection across parts of VA/NC, with the onset of nocturnal
cooling/stabilization. However, weak buoyancy and moderate
deep-layer flow could support gusty winds and small hail with the
strongest remaining convection this evening.
...South FL overnight...
Most guidance suggests thunderstorm redevelopment in the vicinity of
the southwest FL Peninsula prior to the end of the forecast period,
as a low-amplitude mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related
jetlet approach the region from the northeast Gulf. Moderate
buoyancy and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will support
potential for a few strong storms, though any organized severe
threat may not evolve until near/after 12Z.
..Dean.. 06/01/2025
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