Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Valid 282000Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today across
parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur
across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast.
...20z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the prior outlook on the western edge
for ongoing convection. Scattered severe storms, currently
developing across eastern CO and northeast NM, will gradually expand
in coverage/intensity eastward across the southern and central High
Plains this afternoon/evening. Supercells with all hazards are
probable ahead of MCS development and continuation of severe
potential downstream over the southern Plains tonight.
Across the Southeast states, sporadic damaging gusts are possible as
several clusters of strong to severe storms continue eastward along
a broad frontal zone. The primary focus for locally higher damaging
gust potential remains across portions of the lower MS Valley and
Gulf Coast regions through this evening.
No changes were made to the risk areas over western and central TX,
see the prior outlook for more information.
..Lyons.. 05/28/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025/
...Eastern Colorado/Kansas to western Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles...
A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded
on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across
the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest
low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the
southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a
narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across
eastern Colorado into southwest Kansas and the Oklahoma/northern
Texas Panhandles by mid-afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should
initiate across eastern Colorado/southwest Nebraska and vicinity by
18-21Z as large-scale ascent attendant to the shortwave trough
overspreads the developing warm sector.
Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to west-northwesterly and
gradually strengthen with height through mid-levels. Around 30-40 kt
of deep-layer shear should support mainly supercell structures, with
an initial threat for large to isolated very large hail. With time,
a bowing complex should evolve from parts of western/southern Kansas
into northwest Oklahoma and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with a
greater threat for scattered severe winds apparent this evening. A
few tornadoes may also occur in a zone either side of the
Colorado/Kansas border into southwest Kansas, where low-level
shear/SRH should maximize early this evening.
...Western North Texas to North/Central Texas...
A remnant MCV over west Texas will drift slowly eastward today
towards north/central Texas. At least some destabilization will
occur through this afternoon along/near a remnant surface front
draped generally west to east over central Texas. Most
high-resolution guidance shows scattered thunderstorms developing by
mid-afternoon in close proximity to the MCV. Modest enhancement to
the mid-level westerlies associated with this feature should support
enough deep-layer shear for updraft organization and some
supercell/large hail potential initially. With time, a small bowing
cluster may develop and pose more of a severe wind threat through
the late afternoon and evening as convection spreads generally
east-southeastward into central Texas before eventually weakening. A
tornado or two may also occur, as low-level shear will be modestly
enhanced by the MCV.
...Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico...
This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind
large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west
Texas, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak
afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe
Mountains and vicinity with large hail as the primary hazard.
...Upper Texas Coast to Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A loosely organized complex of storms across east Texas and upper
Texas coast should drift eastward, with additional
development/intensification this afternoon preceding it to the east.
While locally damaging winds will be possible across a broad
regional extent, a somewhat more focused potential for wind damage
may exist within a very moist air mass and instability gradient
(largely influenced by storms in prior days) across southern
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.
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