Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Wed May 28 2025
Valid 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes should occur today across
parts of the southern/central Plains. Isolated wind damage may occur
across portions of the Gulf Coast/Southeast.
...Eastern Colorado into Kansas, the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, and
Western Oklahoma...
A closed upper low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest will
drift slowly eastward today. A mid-level shortwave trough embedded
on the western periphery of this low will move southeastward across
the northern/central High Plains this afternoon and evening. Modest
low-level moisture return should occur over parts of the
southern/central High Plains ahead of this shortwave trough, with a
narrow zone of weak to moderate MLCAPE forecast to develop across
eastern CO into southwest KS and the OK/northern TX Panhandles by
mid afternoon. Multiple thunderstorms should initiate across eastern
CO/southwest NE and vicinity by 18-21Z as large-scale ascent
attendant to the shortwave trough overspreads the developing warm
sector. Weak low-level flow is forecast to veer to
west-northwesterly and gradually strengthen with height through mid
levels. Around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear should support mainly
supercell structures, with an initial threat for large to isolated
very large hail. With time, a bowing complex should evolve from
parts of western/southern KS into northwest OK and the OK/TX
Panhandles, with a greater threat for scattered severe winds
apparent this evening. A few tornadoes may also occur in a narrow
zone across southwest KS and vicinity where low-level shear should
be maximized along a warm front late this afternoon/early evening,
especially if a semi-discrete mode can be maintained.
...Western North Texas into North/Central Texas...
A remnant MCV over west TX will drift slowly eastward today towards
north/central TX. While convection occurred yesterday and is still
ongoing this morning across parts of this region, it appears likely
that at least some destabilization will occur through this afternoon
along/near a remnant surface front draped generally west to east
over central TX. Most high-resolution guidance shows scattered
thunderstorms developing by 18-20Z in close proximity to the MCV.
Modest enhancement to the mid-level westerlies associated with this
feature should support enough deep-layer shear for updraft
organization and some supercell/large hail potential initially. With
time, a small bowing cluster may develop and pose more of a severe
wind threat through the late afternoon and evening as convection
spreads generally east-southeastward into central TX before
eventually weakening. A tornado or two may also occur, as low-level
shear will be modestly enhanced the by MCV. Based on recent guidance
trends, the Slight Risk has been expanded southeastward to include
more of central TX.
...Far West Texas and Southeast New Mexico...
This region will remain generally displaced to the west/behind
large-scale ascent associated with an eastward-moving MCV over west
TX, and upper troughing over the north-central states. Still,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms may develop through peak
afternoon heating across the higher terrain of the Davis/Guadalupe
Mountains and vicinity. Hail/wind may occur with any of the stronger
cores that can be sustained. Have maintained the Slight Risk for
hail over parts of this area. But, confidence in overall severe
thunderstorm coverage is low, as low-level upslope flow is forecast
to be weaker compared to yesterday.
...Deep South Texas...
With an unstable airmass remaining in place across deep south TX, a
small cluster of thunderstorms near the lower TX Coast may continue
to pose a severe/damaging wind threat for another hour or two this
morning before moving offshore.
...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast...
A broad and rather unfocused zone of marginal/isolated severe
potential remains apparent downstream of ongoing convection this
morning across the middle TX Coast and central TX vicinity. A
weak/convectively enhanced mid-level shortwave trough will advance
northeastward from central/east TX across parts of the lower MS
Valley through the afternoon and evening. As modest large-scale
ascent associated with this feature overspreads a gradually
destabilizing warm sector, a band of convection may develop across
LA/MS with some risk for hail and damaging winds. Severe potential
across the remainder of the Southeast along/near a stalled front is
even less clear owing to weak large-scale forcing. Still, a
conditional threat for strong/gusty winds may exist with any
convection that can form through peak afternoon heating as low-level
lapse rates slowly steepen.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/28/2025
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