Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025
Valid 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely today from parts of the southern
Plains eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Very large hail
should occur with initial development in parts of west-central
Texas, with severe/damaging winds becoming a greater concern this
afternoon/evening.
...Edwards Plateau to the ArkLaTex...
A large complex of thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across
parts of central/east TX into the ArkLaTex. Some of this activity
may be elevated and occurring to the north of an outflow boundary
from prior convection. Still, the southern portion of the line will
have access to greater instability, and may continue to pose an
isolated threat for severe/damaging winds this morning if it can
remain surface based. In the wake of this activity, strong daytime
heating is anticipated across west-central TX/the Edwards Plateau as
a weak upper trough moves slowly eastward across the
southern/central Plains through this evening. The front/composite
outflow boundary from convection farther east should decelerate and
stall over this region by the early afternoon, with a very moist
low-level airmass in place to its south. Strong to locally extreme
instability will likely develop by peak afternoon heating, with
steep mid-level lapse rates contributing to this ample buoyancy.
Current expectations are for multiple thunderstorms to initiate
along/near the boundary across west-central TX by 18-21Z and quickly
become severe. Although low-level winds are forecast to remain weak,
mid/upper-level west-southwesterly flow gradually strengthening with
height should support around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. This
will easily foster intense supercells with the initial development
this afternoon, and large to very large hail (some 2+ inches in
diameter) appears likely. With time, clustering/upscale growth is
anticipated as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward. An
increasing threat for severe winds should develop as this mode
transition occurs across central TX and vicinity. Given increased
confidence in a focused corridor of very large hail and severe wind
potential this afternoon/evening, have introduced an Enhanced Risk
across parts of west-central TX with this update.
...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
Extensive convective overturning occurred yesterday across much of
the lower MS Valley/Southeast. Outflow related to this convection
has settled well south into parts of northern/central LA and
southern MS/AL/GA, with a remnant MCV noted in northeast GA. The
potential for substantial destabilization to occur to the north of
this boundary (as some guidance suggests) remains questionable, as
thunderstorms are still ongoing this morning across much of northern
LA into western MS. Still, the potential for at least weak
instability to develop remains apparent across parts of the central
Gulf Coast states. Isolated damaging winds should be the main threat
with any clusters that can either spread eastward from the ArkLaTex
or which develop separately this afternoon.
...Southern/Central High Plains...
A modest low-level upslope flow regime will persist today across
parts of the southern/central High Plains to the north of a surface
cold front. While instability should remain limited, isolated to
widely scattered convection should initially develop over the higher
terrain, before subsequently spreading eastward across the adjacent
High Plains through the afternoon/evening. Occasional severe hail
and winds may occur with this activity, with some guidance
suggesting a small cluster may eventually develop this evening
across eastern NM into northwest TX.
..Gleason/Leitman.. 05/26/2025
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