Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sun May 25 2025
Valid 260100Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected tonight across the
southern Plains extending into the northern Gulf States region. Very
large hail, severe winds, and perhaps a few tornadoes will be most
concentrated across the southern Plains.
...01z Update...
Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a weak short-wave trough has
translated into the southern High Plains. This feature is ejecting
well ahead of the primary upper trough that has settled into UT/AZ.
Scattered severe thunderstorms have developed ahead of the minor
disturbance, concentrated along a corridor from the TX South Plains
into central OK. 1km flow is decidedly east of south across this
region, and some increase in LLJ is expected over the next several
hours. Multiple thunderstorm clusters may ultimately evolve across
the southern Plains due to storm mergers and increasing low-level
warm advection after sunset. Overall, earlier severe probabilities
will be mostly maintained as upscale growth is expected through the
mid-late evening hours.
Downstream, leading edge of a rejuvenated MCS is propagating
southeast across northern MS/southern AR. This squall line should
advance into northern AL over the next few hours as a substantial
post-squall line cold pool has developed. Damaging winds can be
expected, along with some risk for hail.
..Darrow.. 05/26/2025
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