Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Fri May 02 2025
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
TX...THE LOWER MS VALLEY TN VALLEY AND LOWER OH VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong/severe thunderstorms will continue across parts of
central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau this afternoon and evening.
This includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...20z Update...
The prior outlook remains largely unchanged. Numerous strong
thunderstorms and severe potential continues across the eastern half
of the CONUS. Storm coverage has gradually increased, and should
continue to do so this afternoon/evening along a broad frontal zone
from TX to OH. Damaging winds and hail are likely.
...Rio Grand Valley to LA...
South of the slow moving convectively modified front, robust heating
amid 70's F surface dewpoints will favor additional storm
development this afternoon/evening from southern TX to LA. Low-level
winds will be rather weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will
promote supercells amid very large SBCAPE (4000-5000 J/kg) and weak
inhibition. Given the expected storm mode, very large hail appears
probable with initial storms across southern TX. The damaging wind
threat should increase through this evening as the front continues
south and upscale growth promotes a more linear mode as storms
spread eastward into the lower MS Valley tonight.
...GA into the western Carolinas...
A cluster of predominately multicell storms has emerged and
persisted across the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Moderate
buoyancy amid weak vertical shear appears likely to support a
continued risk for intermittent strong updrafts. Hail probabilities
have been increased ahead of this cluster as additional storms are
likely over the next several hours. As clustering continues, some
damaging wind threat may also evolve as individual cold pools
gradually coalesce.
...TN Valley...
The severe risk continues across the Mid South and TN Valley ahead
of several loosely organized convective bands and cells. Moderate
CAPE (2000+ J/kg) and 25-35 kt of shear will promote occasional
storm organization with a risk for hail, and eventually damaging
gusts as amalgamation into loosely organized clusters occurs this
evening.
..Lyons.. 05/02/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025/
...TN/OH Valleys...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of
AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will
progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass,
where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon
MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft
will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell
storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a
risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become
better organized. Reference WW 209.
...OH/PA...
Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a
weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through
the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest
PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail. Reference MCD #645.
...TX/LA...
A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this
morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist
and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse
rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg).
Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development
along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather
weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong
anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential.
Reference MCD #646.
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