Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1110 AM CDT Fri May 02 2025
Valid 021630Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
CENTRAL/EAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widespread strong/severe thunderstorm development is expected from
parts of central and eastern Texas to the lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys, and into the Cumberland Plateau by evening. This
includes potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts.
...TN/OH Valleys...
Multiple clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of
AR/northern MS/west TN late this morning. These storms will
progress northeastward into a very moist and unstable air mass,
where strong heating and dewpoints near 70F will yield afternoon
MLCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg. Moderately strong westerly flow aloft
will aid in convective organization, posing a risk of multicell
storms and bowing line segments capable of large hail and damaging
wind gusts. Southerly low-level wind are strong enough to pose a
risk of a tornado or two, if one or more of the clusters can become
better organized. Reference WW 209.
...OH/PA...
Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western OH along a
weak cold front. This activity will increase in coverage through
the afternoon, spreading northeastward across OH and into northwest
PA. The strongest cells will be capable of damaging wind gusts and
hail. Reference MCD #645.
...TX/LA...
A convectively aided front is sagging southward across north TX this
morning. The air mass along and ahead of the boundary is very moist
and unstable, with forecast soundings showing steep mid-level lapse
rates and at least pockets of very large CAPE (4000-5000 J/kg).
Weak inhibition will lead to scattered thunderstorm development
along the boundary by mid-afternoon. Low-level winds will be rather
weak, but sufficient deep-layer shear will promote supercells
capable of very large hail and damaging wind. Very strong
anvil-level winds will aid in the large/giant hail potential.
Reference MCD #646.
..Hart/Squitieri.. 05/02/2025
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