Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0729 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025
Valid 130100Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAVANNAH
VALLEY TO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...AND IN NORTHEAST MT TO FAR
NORTHWEST ND...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight from the
Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas, and through the rest of
this evening in northeast Montana to far northwest North Dakota.
...Savannah Valley to the coastal Carolinas...
Potential for strong to severe storms will remain limited across the
Southeast tonight. One area of low-probability tornado/wind threat
that may persist is downstream of an arc of ongoing convection
across eastern GA to upstate SC. While downstream instability is
weak, enough of a gap exists between this arc and the persistent
warm-conveyor rain swath across eastern NC. Adequate low to
deep-layer shear should be maintained for transient weak rotation
through 12Z Tuesday. This might support a brief tornado or localized
wet microburst. These threats should tend to become more confined
towards the SC to southern NC coastal plain overnight.
...Northeast MT and far northwest ND...
High-based convection persists along and rearward of an undercutting
Pacific cold front marching east into northeast MT. Despite meager
MLCAPE, as sampled by the 00Z GGW sounding, 45-55 F surface
temperature-dew points spreads ahead of the front will promote
potential for a few gusts of 55-70 mph through late evening.
..Grams.. 05/13/2025
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