Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Mon May 12 2025
Valid 122000Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
MONTANA AND NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
Southeast today, where a tornado or two, localized damaging winds,
and hail could occur. Isolated severe wind gusts are also possible
in northeast Montana to northwest North Dakota around early evening.
...20Z Update...
Minor adjustments were made in the Southeast based on observed
convective trends. Greater buoyancy has developed in southeast to
east-central Georgia. This zone could have locally higher potential
for strong to severe storms. However, mid-level dry air is evident
on water vapor imagery. Updrafts may tend to struggle to intensify
due to dry air entrainment. Elsewhere, the forecast remains
unchanged.
..Wendt.. 05/12/2025
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon May 12 2025/
...Southeast...
Vertically stacked cyclone persists over the Mid-South this morning.
Expectation is for this system to become more progressive today,
ejecting into western TN by early tomorrow morning. A moist airmass
remains in place downstream of this cyclone across the Southeast,
and numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently ongoing within
the warm conveyor of this system from FL into GA and the Carolina.
Moderate southwesterly/southerly will persist within this warm
sector, and effective shear should be sufficient for multicell
clusters and transient updraft rotation. However, only modest
destabilization is anticipated across much of the region, limiting
the overall severe potential. Expectation is for occasionally strong
storms in areas of sufficient destabilization, with damaging
downbursts and hail as the primary risk. A corridor of greater
severe potential could be developing across southern GA and northern
FL where some heating is occurring.
...Northeast Montana/northwest North Dakota...
Deep shortwave trough will continue to push eastward across the
Pacific Northwest today, with associated southwesterly flow aloft
extending from northern CA into the northern High Plains. Deeply
mixed thermodynamic profiles are expected across the region as the
airmass destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are most
probable from mid-afternoon into evening with development
near/behind an eastward-advancing front. Convective coverage off the
higher terrain of southern Montana should be less than in recent
days. However, the potential will still exist for a few dry
microbursts producing localized severe-caliber wind gusts as the
storms move off the terrain into more of eastern MT.
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